The EUR/JPY cross continues to trade with a modest bullish bias, advancing toward the 185.00 psychological resistance zone during Tuesday’s early European session.
The pair is currently positioned near 184.90, reflecting steady buying interest after the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against the Euro (EUR). In this article, the brokers at Ellismis provide an in-depth exploration of this topic.
From a technical perspective, EUR/JPY remains supported above key trend indicators, suggesting that buyers still maintain control of the short-term structure. The pair is trading above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 184.85, an important dynamic support level that continues to protect the broader upward trend.
The price action also remains above the 20-period middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 184.75, reinforcing the view that the current market structure favors a gradual upside continuation rather than an immediate bearish reversal. However, momentum conditions remain limited.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe is positioned near 49.62, indicating a neutral momentum environment. The RSI reading below the 50.00 threshold suggests that bullish pressure is not yet strong enough to confirm a powerful breakout, increasing the probability of short-term consolidation around current levels.
EUR/JPY Resistance Levels: 185.90 and 186.32 in Focus
The immediate technical barrier for EUR/JPY bulls is at the 185.90 resistance level, which coincides with the upper Bollinger Band. This level represents the first major upside obstacle and could determine whether the pair extends its recovery phase.
A decisive daily close above 185.90 would strengthen the bullish technical setup and expose the next resistance level at the June 17 high of 186.32. Beyond that region, traders would likely monitor the 187.42 resistance zone, aligned with the April 29 high, as the next significant upside target.
The current structure suggests that a breakout above 186.32 would confirm increasing demand and potentially shift momentum toward a stronger bullish continuation. Until that occurs, the pair remains within a controlled upward range with resistance limiting aggressive upside movement.
EUR/JPY Support Analysis: 184.85 Remains the Critical Level
On the downside, the first important support zone is located at the 100-day SMA near 184.85. This moving average has become a key technical reference point, and holding above it keeps the medium-term bullish structure intact.
A break below 184.85 would expose the next support level at the Bollinger middle band around 184.75. A sustained move beneath this area would weaken the current bullish setup and suggest that sellers are gaining short-term control.
Further downside pressure could drive the pair toward the lower Bollinger Band at 183.65, which represents a stronger structural support zone. A decline toward this level would indicate a deeper technical correction rather than a simple consolidation phase.
The spacing between the Bollinger Bands also suggests that volatility remains relatively contained. A narrowing range around 184.75–185.90 could precede a stronger directional move once either buyers or sellers gain enough momentum to break the current boundaries.
Technical Indicators Signal Consolidation With Slight Upside Potential
The broader technical picture remains constructive, with EUR/JPY trading above key support levels, suggesting buyers are maintaining control of the lower end of the recent trading range.
The combination of the 100-day SMA support, the Bollinger Band positioning, and the current price holding firmly above the 184.85 level indicates that market participants are actively defending downside moves and preventing a deeper correction.
The RSI near 49.62 indicates limited momentum, reflecting a balanced market where neither buyers nor sellers have clear control. While the pair retains potential for further upside, stronger buying pressure is needed to confirm a sustained bullish breakout.
Overall, the technical outlook remains neutral-to-bullish, with a slight upward bias but continued consolidation risk. A breakout above resistance could strengthen bullish sentiment, while a drop below support may increase downside pressure and shift the short-term trend.
EUR/JPY Forecast: Bullish Structure Intact Above 184.85
The short-term forecast for EUR/JPY remains cautiously bullish as long as the pair holds above the 184.85–184.75 support zone. A successful defense of this area would keep buyers positioned for another attempt toward 185.90, followed by 186.32 and potentially 187.42.
However, failure to maintain support above 184.85 would weaken the technical outlook and increase the probability of a move toward 183.65.
Overall, EUR/JPY maintains a modest bullish bias near 185.00, supported by its position above key moving averages and technical support levels. The next major signal is likely to come from a breakout above 185.90 or a breakdown below 184.75, which would determine the pair’s next directional phase.
