The Pi (PI) token has entered a severe bearish phase, with its market structure deteriorating as selling pressure, declining liquidity, and accelerating token unlocks weigh on price action. PI has lost approximately 60% of its value in 2026, while demand for the asset has continued to weaken across the market.
The brokers at Ellismis examine the topic closely, highlighting key considerations and insights throughout the article.
Over the last 24 hours, PI declined by 16%, extending its broader downtrend and raising concerns that the token could continue moving toward significantly lower valuations.
Although trading volume increased by approximately 200% during the latest decline, reaching $24 million, this activity represents only 2.6% of PI’s circulating market capitalization, showing limited market depth.
Historical volume trends indicate weakening participation. Between July 2 and July 10, daily trading volume remained below $10 million, reflecting reduced interest from traders and investors. The absence of major ecosystem developments from the Pi Core Team has further contributed to declining market engagement.
830 Million PI Tokens Scheduled to Enter the Market
The most significant bearish factor facing PI is the acceleration of token unlocks. Starting in July, more than 100 million PI tokens are expected to become available every month, increasing the circulating supply at a time when demand remains extremely limited.
According to PiScan on-chain data, approximately 830 million PI tokens are scheduled to unlock between July and December. Based on current prices, these releases represent roughly $66 million in additional supply entering the market within six months.
This supply expansion creates a major imbalance between available tokens and market demand. In a low-liquidity environment, large unlock events can produce significant downward volatility because newly released tokens can increase selling activity from holders seeking liquidity.
The current market structure suggests that PI faces a difficult scenario: circulating supply is increasing, while trading activity, investor interest, and liquidity remain weak.
High Wallet Concentration Creates Additional Market Risk
Another major concern is the extreme concentration of PI holdings among wallets controlled by entities linked to the project.
PiScan data shows that 7 wallets associated with the Pi Foundation reportedly hold approximately 68.4 billion PI tokens, representing around 68.4% of the total supply. The liquidity reserve wallet alone controls approximately 1 billion PI tokens.
This level of ownership concentration creates substantial centralization risk because a small group of wallets controls a majority of the available supply. Large transactions from these wallets could have a significant impact on market liquidity and price stability.
From a market perspective, a token with high insider concentration, limited exchange access, and weak demand growth faces increased downside risks. The imbalance between community-held supply and foundation-controlled supply remains one of the biggest concerns affecting investor confidence.
Limited Exchange Support and Migration Problems Affect Sentiment
PI’s market accessibility remains restricted due to the absence of listings on several major cryptocurrency exchanges. Limited exchange availability reduces liquidity, decreases trading efficiency, and prevents broader market participation.
Another issue affecting sentiment is the ongoing difficulty some users have experienced with the project’s mandatory KYC verification process. The migration of PI tokens to the mainnet requires successful identity verification, but some users have reported delays or failed migration attempts.
These technical and operational issues have prevented certain holders from accessing their balances while the token price has continued declining since the public mainnet launch in February 2025.
Technical Analysis Shows Oversold Conditions but Weak Trend
From a technical perspective, PI’s bearish momentum accelerated after the token broke below the $0.13 support level. The decline also pushed PI’s market capitalization below the $1 billion mark, a level that previously represented an important valuation threshold.
However, short-term indicators suggest the possibility of a temporary recovery. PI’s daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently reached its lowest oversold reading since the October 2025 market crash, indicating that selling pressure may have become excessive.
An oversold RSI can produce short-term relief rallies, but it does not necessarily indicate a long-term trend reversal. If buyers attempt a recovery, the $0.10 resistance zone could become the next important technical barrier.
PI Outlook Remains Bearish Despite Potential Relief Rally
Although PI could experience a short-term bounce toward $0.10, the broader technical and fundamental outlook remains negative. The combination of 830 million upcoming token unlocks, 68.4% supply concentration, weak liquidity, lack of major exchange listings, and declining demand continues to create significant downside pressure.
The current market structure indicates that PI is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with new tokens entering circulation faster than demand is developing.
Unless the ecosystem generates stronger utility, improves accessibility, and attracts new market participants, PI may remain trapped in a prolonged bearish cycle. The potential oversold bounce could provide temporary relief, but the long-term direction will depend on whether the project can reverse declining adoption and restore investor confidence.
